Transition Value Calculator
When Mike leaves, the company may look unchanged on Monday. Then a customer waits, a decision stalls, or margin gives up a point. Use your numbers to see what those small differences could mean—and where the expected cost of Skagway’s work sits beside them.
Your ledger
If things slip
Annual EBITDA difference
$1.28M
24-month EBITDA difference
$2.56M
Possible value difference
$10.24M
Customer revenue exposed
$1.50M
These figures can overlap. Read them separately; do not add them together.
The comparison
9.77%
of the $2.56M EBITDA difference over 24 months
2.44%
of the $10.24M possible value difference
A point of reference—not a promise about what Skagway will prevent or produce.
The arithmetic
Operating earnings, company value, and customer relationships can overlap. The calculator keeps them separate.
| What you see | How it is figured | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Annual EBITDA difference | Today’s EBITDA minus EBITDA after the revenue and margin declines you chose. | One year of operating difference. |
| EBITDA over time | The annual difference carried across your chosen number of months. | What the same difference means if it lingers. |
| Possible value difference | The annual EBITDA difference multiplied by your valuation multiple. | A comparison at that multiple—not a valuation. |
| Relationship revenue exposed | Revenue Mike personally helps hold multiplied by the share that may be affected. | A separate look at customer dependence. |
| Annual EBITDA improvement | Revenue multiplied by your chosen margin improvement. | What that improvement would mean in one year. |
| Skagway cost comparison | Expected cost of Skagway’s work divided by the figure beside it. | The portion that would equal that cost. |
What the research can say
No study can price Mike’s departure. These studies show why the question deserves attention—and where their findings stop.
McKinsey studied 200 publicly traded family-owned businesses and surveyed people involved in transitions at 170 private and public family businesses. Average shareholder returns were 5.7 percentage points lower in the five years after a transition than in the five years before it. A group of 43 stronger performers improved revenue growth and EBITDA margins by about four points. Neither result predicts yours.
A review of 60 studies covering 13,578 CEO successions found a negative short-term relationship with performance. Over the long term, there was no single result shared by every company. Who took over, what changed, and how the company was governed all mattered.
Sauvagnat and Schivardi studied unexpected executive deaths at Italian firms. The effects lasted longer where capable replacements were hard to find nearby. A sudden death is very different from a planned retirement, so the study cannot tell you what your transition will cost. It does show why the readiness of the person taking over can matter.
Limits
This calculator is for exploring possibilities. It uses only the numbers you enter. It does not predict what will happen, value your company, promise a result, or estimate the financial value Skagway will create.
Can you name what leaves with Mike?
Some of the value sits inside decisions and relationships that have never appeared in a spreadsheet. The next question is where they still live.
Begin with the person behind the decisions.
